The Labour Party and Gaza
Keir Starmer, the Middle East and that call for a ceasefire
A Blueprint for Keir Starmer
Tony Blair and Gordon Brown often posed a question to me: "Where does this go?" For these solution-focused leaders, this query set their logical minds in motion, helping them tackle what often seemed like intractable political problems.
I've found myself pondering over Tony and Gordon's approach quite a bit this week. From a distance, I've watched Keir Starmer weather a political storm both from within and close to his party. At times, he has appeared to face more political pressure over the Israel-Gaza situation than even Rishi Sunak. Such is the fate of a Prime Minister-in-waiting.
The challenge confronting Starmer and those lobbying him is substantial. After all, he has zero influence over Benjamin Netanyahu, the Prime Minister of Israel, and Ismail Haniyeh, the Qatar-based chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau.
Nevertheless, these fraught times, with Israel and Palestine dominating headlines for all the wrong reasons, present an opportunity. Keir Starmer can display not just thought leadership but moral leadership as well. Amidst the horrors unfolding in Gaza and the West Bank, he has a chance to chart a new course, one that resists being blown off course by short-term pressures from within his own ranks.
A Case for the Two-State Solution
First and foremost, it is essential for Keir to firmly restate his commitment to a two-state solution. While this may not appear as particularly new, it is crucial for creating a viable, long-term strategy for peace. Conversations with Gulf states will be central to this initiative. Their diplomatic heft can add credence and weight to the arguments presented. It’s also why Labour should be talking to all gulf leaders including MBS, and should actively seek his counsel when he visits the UK.
What do Gazans Want?
While it's important to note that Gaza is not a monolith, and its nearly two million residents have diverse views and aspirations, surveys and studies suggest a few consistent themes. The majority of Gazans primarily desire an end to the blockade that has crippled economic life and constrained their freedom of movement. They are also looking for meaningful employment, as Gaza has one of the highest unemployment rates in the world. There's a strong yearning for a stable governance structure; currently, the situation is fragmented with Hamas in control but largely isolated internationally.
Many Gazans wish for a unification of governance with the West Bank and a return to talks aimed at a two-state solution with Israel. Moreover, there is a palpable demand for basic human rights, including access to healthcare, electricity, and clean water, all of which have been severely limited. While some do support the actions of groups like Hamas as a form of resistance, it's crucial to remember that many others do not see this as the path to a better future.
The perspective of Gazans is often lost in discussions around the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but it is a crucial factor that needs consideration. Data suggests that a significant portion of the population doesn't wish to be governed by Hamas.
According to a poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research in September 2020, if presidential elections were to be held, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh would lose to Fatah's Mahmoud Abbas or imprisoned Fatah leader Marwan Barghouti.
Additionally, 62% of Gazans want to see a change in the current Hamas-led governance. This sentiment is visibly expressed in various forms of civil unrest, like the "We Want to Live" protests in 2019. These protests were a testament to the frustration against the status quo, specifically against the economic hardships imposed under Hamas' rule.
While it's true that Gazans want an end to the blockade, better living conditions, and access to opportunities, there is also a desire for political change. They are increasingly calling for a return to Palestinian unity under a single, democratically elected government that can negotiate more effectively on behalf of both the West Bank and Gaza.
Governance in Gaza and the West Bank
In summary, any long-term solution must take into account not just the geopolitics and the viewpoints of global powers, but also the aspirations and frustrations of the people living in Gaza. Many are dissatisfied with their current leadership and are demanding governance that can effectively lead them toward statehood, greater freedom, and improved living conditions.
The existing governance disparity between Gaza, controlled by Hamas, and the West Bank, overseen by the Palestinian Authority, poses a real challenge. Starmer's efforts should focus on rebuilding political leadership in Gaza, emphatically declaring that Hamas has no future there. For this to happen, he should advocate for a reconfigured Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) and Palestinian Authority (PA) that are more inclusive and democratic.
The Failed Legacy of Netanyahu
Keir Starmer should also make it clear that he has no intention of bolstering the shattered authority of Netanyahu. The Israeli Prime Minister has failed to maintain peace or increase security, abandoning even the idea of a two-state solution. This failure has been exacerbated by the abandonment of the Oslo Accords' route map for peace, once considered the apex of cooperation between Israel and Palestine.
It’s a risky business for a leader to comment on the domestic electoral politics of another country, but Starmer can afford to do this and has been given some space to do so by Merav Michaeli, leader of Labour’s sister party in Israel, who this week has called for Nethanyahu to immediately resign. When this current military operation is over, it is highly likely that Israel will have a new leader in the years ahead, as the era of Netanyahu finally closes.
The Illusion of Immediate Ceasefires
While calling for an immediate ceasefire might momentarily satisfy short-term demands from within the UK, the plea is likely to fall on deaf ears in Jerusalem, Doha, and Tehran. In the high-stakes, multi-layered landscape of Middle Eastern politics, a call from a UK opposition leader may be seen as largely symbolic, lacking the force to instigate real change. It may satisfy demands domestically for the mayors of London and Manchester but would make Starmer look ineffective globally and unable to understand the realpolitik of the region.
The Promise of Oslo
In 1993, the Oslo Accords were signed, creating a wave of optimism. The Accords laid the foundation for peace by recognising mutual legitimate and political rights and produced a five-year transitional plan. For a fleeting moment, peace seemed not only possible but within reach.
The Road Map for Peace
Post-Oslo, the international community also put forth the "Road Map for Peace," aiming for a two-state solution through direct negotiations. This initiative further clarified the framework for peace but has not been fully realised due to various obstacles and challenges from both sides.
A Roadmap for the Future
Starmer should advocate for an internationally backed effort to rebuild the PA and PLO, focusing on democratic inclusion and an unequivocal commitment to peace. This would create a framework for ending Israel’s present security paradigm and the current Israeli government’s defiance of a sustainable and peaceful two-state solution.
To secure this peace, a new roadmap could be forged, replacing the Oslo Accords and taking into account the political and social changes that have occurred in the intervening years.
The alternative to this approach is a continuation of the endless cycle of violence and tragedy we have seen for far too long. While it's clear that reforms are overdue, the renewed urgency of the situation demands action.
With the backing of Arab countries and the international community, this plan offers a credible path forward, unlike the options currently being considered by Israel, which promise only more violence and unrest.
Learning from History
Am I being too optimistic or unrealistic in making this argument? Maybe I am, but the Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty of 1979 serves as a pertinent reminder that even the bleakest of situations can change, making way for a surprising and lasting peace.
When Egyptian President Anwar Sadat and Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin sat down at Camp David under the aegis of U.S. President Jimmy Carter, they were enacting a vision for a more peaceful Middle East that defied all previous expectations.
The Role of Hope and Unexpected Peace
Six years prior, during the Yom Kippur War of 1973, the very notion that Egypt and Israel could find common ground seemed fantastical. Yet, the unimaginable happened. This historical precedent should serve as a beacon of hope in these dark times. It underlines that seemingly irreconcilable differences can indeed be overcome and that hope, as elusive as it may seem, has a vital role to play in any peace process.
Starmer could seize upon this powerful narrative to articulate the importance of persistent diplomatic efforts and the irreplaceable value of hope.
A Model for Today’s Middle East
By citing the Egyptian-Israeli peace as a model, Starmer can argue for the possibilities of achieving a negotiated settlement between Israel and Palestine. It's a potent reminder that long-lasting peace comes often from the most unexpected quarters and that the impossible can indeed become possible.
Inspiration for a New Peace Accord
While the circumstances today are far more complex, especially considering the multitude of actors and the tangled geopolitics of the region, the basic tenets of diplomacy, negotiation, and mutual benefit remain unchanged. Starmer can advocate for a new peace accord, inspired by the lessons from Egypt and Israel, that takes into account the unique circumstances of the current crisis.
In summary, Keir Starmer has the opportunity to use this powerful historical example to argue that a better, more peaceful future is not just possible, but achievable. It would send a strong message, not just to his party or to the UK, but to the entire world, that the Labour Party under his leadership is serious about contributing to a lasting peace in the Middle East.
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I found this a really helpful read. Thank you.
Having just read, 'A Line in the Sand,' your proposal as to how Keir Starmer should react is eminently sensible. The two sides have to find a resolution to the conflict to avoid the terrible prospect of a wider war.