It’s funny that I first met David Cameron nearly a quarter of a century ago. He was a leader in waiting back then, effortlessly the most talented of the Tory 2001 intake to the Commons.
He was thoughtful and could coin a phrase with ease. He was also aloof without knowing it. Unsurprisingly, he lost the support of many of his backbenchers when in office.
I’m probably in the minority, thinking that most ex-PMs, the non-mad ones at least, make good foreign secretaries. Today’s note is an attempt to look at the issues, challenges and threats facing Cameron as he faces our number one diplomatic challenge: How to deal with China.
A close friend in the Lords with a lifetime of foreign policy experience recently gave a talk to a group of undergraduate students of International Relations. “Should I be learning Mandarin or Russian?” asked one enthusiastic scholar.
“Learn Russian if you are an optimist, Mandarin if you are a pessimist” was the reply.
Cameron is a natural optimist who should be learning Mandarin! Here’s my take on how his appointment will impact our approach to China.
Cameron's Legacy as UK Prime Minister
Shaping UK-China Relations
David Cameron's tenure as the UK Prime Minister from 2010 to 2016 marked a significant era in UK-China relations. His leadership was characterised by a strategic push towards strengthening economic ties with China. This move was lauded for its potential economic benefits and criticised for taking the UK parliament further than it wanted in political relations.
One of the hallmark moments of Cameron's approach was the state visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2015. This visit was a cornerstone in developing a "Golden Era" of UK-China relations.
Several key agreements were signed during this period, bolstering trade and investment between the two nations. Notably, the visit led to the announcement of Chinese investment in the Hinkley Point C nuclear power station. This decision underscored the UK's openness to Chinese investment in critical infrastructure.
However, Cameron's tenure was not without its controversies regarding China. His government stood accused of prioritising economic gains over human rights concerns. As he steps into the role of Foreign Secretary, his past experiences with China will undoubtedly influence his approach and the UK's future foreign policy direction.
Cameron's Post-Parliamentary Commercial Life
After stepping down as Prime Minister, David Cameron embarked on a new chapter that saw him delve into various commercial roles, some of which have significantly shaped his post-political identity. These ventures have given him a unique perspective, particularly concerning China, but they also present potential challenges in his new role as Foreign Secretary.
Cameron's involvement with projects linked to China's Belt and Road Initiative, such as the Colombo Port City project in Sri Lanka, has been a point of contention. Critics argue that his commercial activities may lead to a perception of bias or conflict of interest in his diplomatic dealings with China.
Former Conservative Party leader Iain Duncan Smith expressed concerns, recently saying, "Cameron of all people must realize that China's Belt and Road is not about help and support and development, it's ultimately about gaining control."
However, Cameron's engagement with these projects also suggests a deep understanding of China's global economic strategies. His insights into China's global infrastructure strategy, the Belt and Road Initiative, could prove invaluable in navigating the complex economic and geopolitical landscapes that the UK faces about China.
Moreover, Cameron's commercial ventures have allowed him to build a network of contacts and relationships that could foster a more nuanced and informed dialogue with Chinese leaders. His familiarity with the Chinese market and investment strategies could be a political advantage in negotiations and policy-making.
As Cameron steps into his role as Foreign Secretary, the challenge will be to leverage his commercial experience to the UK's advantage while convincingly distancing himself from any perception of financial capture by Chinese interests. This balancing act will be crucial in establishing his credibility both at home and on the international stage.
New Policy Challenges - Ukraine, AI, and Nuclear Proliferation
Ukraine: The Geopolitical Powder Keg
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine presents a complex challenge, with China's ambiguous position adding to the intricacies. Cameron's task will involve supporting Ukraine's sovereignty and ensuring that China does not veer towards a more interventionist role in support of Russia.
His diplomatic skills and understanding of China's global strategy will be crucial in navigating this delicate situation. The goal is to foster a dialogue that encourages China to play a constructive role in resolving the conflict, aligning with international efforts to uphold international law and territorial integrity. (More on this down below)
Artificial Intelligence: The Race for Technological Supremacy
The realm of Artificial Intelligence (AI) is another critical area where Cameron's influence could be significant. As AI continues to reshape global power dynamics, establishing a framework for its ethical and responsible use is imperative. Cameron's role could involve spearheading efforts to reach an international treaty on AI, a move that would benefit all nations.
His understanding of China's technological advancements and aspirations can be instrumental in bridging gaps and building consensus on international standards and regulations for AI development and usage. This is not just about technological leadership but also about ensuring that AI development supports a peaceful, caring world in line with the aspirations for technological progress.
Nuclear Proliferation: Understanding and Addressing Misconceptions
The issue of nuclear proliferation is another area where Cameron's nuanced approach could make a difference. There is a growing concern about China's nuclear expansion, often perceived as a direct response to the perceived threats from the USA in the region.
Cameron's role will involve demystifying these perceptions and promoting a dialogue that acknowledges the legitimate security concerns of all parties. By fostering mutual understanding and respect for each nation's security needs, Cameron can help de-escalate tensions and steer the conversation towards arms control and non-proliferation efforts.
Existing Policy Areas - Trade, Taiwan, Human Rights, and Climate Change
Trade Relations: Seeking a Middle Ground
In the realm of trade, David Cameron's tenure as Foreign Secretary will require a delicate balancing act. The UK's trade relationship with China is a complex web of interdependencies and opportunities. Cameron's experience and connections could be pivotal in navigating this landscape, aiming to foster a trade relationship that is both economically beneficial and sensitive to broader geopolitical concerns.
His role will involve advocating for fair trade practices while addressing issues such as intellectual property rights and market access, ensuring that the UK's economic interests are safeguarded without compromising core values and principles.
Taiwan: A Diplomatic Tightrope
The issue of Taiwan presents a compassionate diplomatic challenge. Cameron's approach must be carefully calibrated to support Taiwan's democratic rights and autonomy while avoiding actions that could escalate tensions with China.
His diplomatic acumen will be tested in maintaining a stance that respects both the UK's commitments to human rights and the complexities of China-Taiwan relations. This will require a nuanced understanding of the historical and political context and a keen sense of the current geopolitical dynamics.
Human Rights: Advocating for Change
Human rights issues in China, including the situation in Xinjiang and Hong Kong, remain a point of contention in UK-China relations. Cameron's role will involve advocating for human rights while maintaining a diplomatic dialogue with Beijing.
This will require a careful approach that combines firmness on principles with a pragmatic understanding of what can be realistically achieved through diplomatic channels. His experience and understanding of China's political landscape could be instrumental in making progress on these sensitive issues.
Climate Change: Collaborative Efforts for a Sustainable Future
Finally, climate change is an area where UK-China collaboration could yield significant results. Cameron's tenure could be pivotal in fostering joint initiatives and partnerships in areas such as renewable energy, carbon emissions reduction, and sustainable development.
Given the global nature of the climate crisis, his ability to engage with China on this front could contribute significantly to international efforts to combat climate change while also opening up new avenues for cooperation between the two countries.
Persuading China to give up its dependence on coal will be far more difficult given the UK's recent decision not to give up our dependence on North Sea Oil.
Overcoming Perceptions of Financial Capture
In his new role, David Cameron faces the intricate task of distancing himself from his commercial engagements post-parliament, particularly those linked to China. This is vital to assure both domestic and international audiences of his impartiality and dedication to the UK's foreign policy interests. It’s his biggest political challenge.
A New Chapter in Public Service
Cameron's appointment signals a return to public service, where his decisions and actions must be transparently aligned with national interests. It's a departure from his private sector ventures, where personal and commercial gains were primary. This transition requires a clear demarcation between his past and present roles, ensuring that his policies and strategies are not clouded by previous commercial affiliations.
Addressing the Elephant in the Room
Acknowledging and addressing public concerns about his past business dealings will be a crucial step for Cameron. A forthright approach, where he openly discusses his previous engagements and how they will be kept separate from his current responsibilities, could help mitigate suspicions and build trust.
Proving Independence and Integrity
The effectiveness of Cameron's diplomacy will hinge on his ability to demonstrate independence from his past commercial ties. This involves not only making unbiased decisions but also being seen to make them. His actions and policies must consistently reflect the UK's strategic interests, especially in delicate matters involving China.
Rebuilding Trust through Actions
Cameron's tenure will be closely scrutinised for any signs of influence from his past commercial relationships. To rebuild trust, he must ensure that his initiatives and decisions as Foreign Secretary are guided solely by the UK's diplomatic goals and values. This includes taking firm stances where necessary, even if they contradict his previous commercial interests.
Cameron's Diplomatic Challenges in the Ukraine Crisis
David Cameron's appointment as Foreign Secretary places him at the forefront of the UK's diplomatic efforts in the Ukraine crisis. His role is particularly crucial in managing the UK's relationship with China, a key player whose actions could significantly influence the conflict's trajectory and its aftermath.
1. Preventing Chinese Military Support to Russia
Cameron faces the immediate challenge of ensuring that China does not provide military support to Russia. This task requires a nuanced understanding of China's strategic interests and its relationship with Russia. Cameron's diplomatic skills will be tested in persuading Beijing to refrain from actions that could escalate the conflict or prolong the suffering in Ukraine.
Engaging in Dialogue: Cameron must engage in high-level dialogues with Chinese officials, emphasising the global consequences of any military support to Russia. He needs to articulate the UK's stance clearly while understanding China's perspective, seeking common ground that discourages military involvement.
Building International Consensus: Another aspect of this challenge is to build an international consensus that dissuades China from supporting Russia militarily. Cameron's experience and relationships could be instrumental in rallying support from other nations, creating a unified front that underscores the importance of non-intervention.
2. Involving China in Post-Conflict Reconstruction
The second challenge for Cameron is to ensure China's involvement in the reconstruction efforts and the fostering of a post-Putin peace. At this stage, it’s only a conversation that can be had in the margins of meetings. He needs to signal that his intent is to involve integrating China into the international institutions and processes that will shape the future of Ukraine and the region.
Promoting Constructive Engagement: Cameron's role includes encouraging China to play a constructive role in the post-conflict scenario. This involves diplomatic efforts to involve Beijing in considering the idea of reconstruction initiatives, financial aid programs, and peace-building measures, highlighting the benefits of a stable and prosperous Ukraine.
Balancing Interests: Cameron must balance the UK's commitment to Ukrainian sovereignty and democratic values with the pragmatic need to involve China in the reconstruction process. His approach should aim to foster collaboration without compromising on fundamental principles. Easier said than done but he’s not doing this job because it is easy.
The Road Ahead
Cameron's diplomatic acumen will be crucial in navigating the intricate dynamics of the UK's relationship with China. His understanding of China, honed through his tenure as Prime Minister and his subsequent commercial engagements, places him in a unique position to influence this relationship positively.
Key Focus Areas:
• Ukraine Crisis: Cameron's immediate focus will be on managing the delicate balance between deterring Chinese military support for Russia and involving China in the post-conflict reconstruction of Ukraine.
• AI and Technology: The advancement and regulation of AI and emerging technologies present a significant area where the UK and China can collaborate. Cameron's role in fostering a global treaty on AI usage will be pivotal in shaping a future where technology is used for the greater good.
• Nuclear Proliferation: Addressing concerns around nuclear proliferation, particularly in the context of China's nuclear expansion, will require Cameron to engage in nuanced diplomacy, ensuring mutual understanding and cooperation.
Final Thought
All of these issues will be live, whoever wins the next general election. If Cameron was smart, he’d keep David Lammy, Labour’s Shadow Foreign Secretary in the loop on his thinking.
Lammy is clever enough not to use this politically but the national interest requires both parties to work as closely as they can to maintain a consistent and cogent position with China in the years ahead. As an ex-PM with no skin in the game of the next parliament, he’s better placed to do this than most.
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Thank you Tom, a very thoughtful and educative piece that neatly cuts through all the drama of his appointment.
Cogently put, Tom, an excellent piece.